Saturday, March 10, 2012

Predicting an Aggie win vs La. Tech

I still like the New Mexico State Aggies tonight in their game against Louisiana Tech for a few reasons.

First off, the Aggies are the better team. They hold an advantage in the game's matchups — no WAC team really matches up at all with NMSU outside of Nevada, as the Aggies hold an edge in size and strength around the basket. I expect them to control the game in the rebounding department — just as they did against Fresno State in the WAC's opening round and against Hawaii in Friday night's semifinals win.

There are some aspects of tonight's game that scare me more-so than the Aggies last two contests in WAC Tourney play.

For starters, many were ready for a rematch between No. 2-seed NMSU and No. 1-seed Nevada, and the Aggies hold a 2-0 record against Louisiana Tech this year. The Bulldogs also have an untraditional team, in the sense that they'll spread the floor with four guards and rely on the 3-pointer.

Also, NMSU showed some vulnerabilities on Friday against Hawaii in their transition defense, and defending the Warriors penetration-and-kick game.

As always, the Aggies defense — particularly at 3-point line — will be KEY.

But, again, I like the matchup advantages NMSU holds and also like the team's leadership at this point in the season. Their three seniors — headlined by forward Wendell McKines — I don't think will allow them to lose this game.

I expect an exciting game — fast paced, up and down, entertaining. And, yes, I expect an Aggie win. Even if it will be a nerve-wracking one.

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